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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-01-14 00:00

  • EXPIRED ON January 15, 2021 @ 12:00 am
    Published on January 14, 2021 @ 12:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. The snowpack is capped off with a smooth, widespread crust. Exercise normal caution while traveling in the backcountry. There is potential for falling rime ice. A period of mostly clear skies and melt-freeze cycles lies ahead.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Very Likely
  • Size ?
    Very Large

Overall avalanche danger is low, but remain in the avalanche mindset. Think about weather, terrain, snowpack, and your ego. When the snow flies again, you'll be better prepared.

Cliff bands are caked with rime ice. Warm temperatures over the next couple of days could dislodge this ice causing it to tumble down upon you. Stay aware and keep you eyes up if ascending below these areas.

Forecast Discussion

This year's annual super-spreader event, The Snowball, will be held online thanks to COVID-19. You'll have to party hardy at home, but while you do so, bid for cool items and win sick prizes virtually. It'll be hard not seeing y'all in person, but let's make the best of it. Register to participate by clicking below. Thank you for supporting us!

Recent Observations

Tuesday's storm capped the snowpack off with a widespread rain / wet snow crust. This inch thick crust was found at 9,200 ft yesterday. No doubt it extends higher. Oddly, it supports the weight of a snowmobile, but you'll punch through if walking. You might be able to ski on it if you wish to punish yourself with a scraping, teeth-chattering experience. Wait a few days. It may turn into a great spring-skiing situation.

Despite moderate winds, no snow was being transported at higher elevations, further indicating that the storm brought mostly wet snow or little snow at all elevations. Snow surfaces are mostly smooth with very little wind-effect.

Cliff bands are caked with rime. Icy rocks glisten in the sun. The snowpack is still thin in places above treeline. Plenty of rocks are exposed on the sides of ridges and moraines.

No signs of wind slabs or other obvious signs of avalanche danger were seen.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Settle in for a  period of mostly sunny weather accompanied by above freezing temperatures during the day, and near freezing temperatures at night. Today the temperature near treeline is expected to be rise to 50 °F and will only fall to 42 tonight. Yuck!

Those looking for some spring-like skiing in January may be rewarded soon, though temperatures are trending downward and the window to find that sun softened snow will narrow.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 31 30 48 41 0 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 31 26 39 33 0 0 Snow depth not working
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 46 32 46 36.5 43 0 0 0.9
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 44 30.5 44.5 36 12 43 WNW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 49 34 49 39.5 24.1 0.8 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 38.5 32 43.5 37.5 2 5 WSW 37.4 2.6 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 42.5 30 42.5 35 34.5 0 0.4
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 43.5 29.5 43.5 35 9 31 W

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Partly cloudy. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 50 42 47
Wind (mi/hr) Southwest 5-10 Northeast 5-10 East 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Sunny. Partly cloudy. Mostly sunny. Breezy..
Temperature (°F) 43 38 38
Wind (mi/hr) West 15-20 West 15-20 West 20-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 5.75 18.34 31
Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2024) 2.17 3.13 69
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 2.17 3.13 69


This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.