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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-01-15 05:45

  • EXPIRED ON January 16, 2021 @ 5:45 am
    Published on January 15, 2021 @ 5:45 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Avalanche danger is low and normal caution is advised for another day of sunny skies and warm temperatures. West/northwest wind will check back in on the mountain.
Watch for falling rime ice below ice crusted cliffs. Any climbers on steeper terrain may also encounter firm, slide-for-life snow conditions.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
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Overall avalanche danger is low. Backcountry hazards will be limited to challenging, knee wrenching ski conditions, slide for life climbing conditions and over head hazard due to ice caked cliff bands. Oh yeah, we wouldn't want those exposed rocks and trees feeling left out, they are also part of the show.

Forecast Discussion

The 2021 Snowball has gone VIRTUAL this year and there are some bitching items on the silent auction site that you should bid on. The snow is terrible, so how about a little shopping, eh? Register to participate by clicking below. Thank you for supporting us. We love you!



 

The USDA Forest Service would like to remind everyone to recreate responsibly during MLK weekend and amidst the ongoing pandemic. Simple actions such as staying local, planning ahead and following social distance guidelines can increase the outdoor experience for everyone. Bunny Flat will no doubt be busy. Please follow these parking suggestions:

Recent Observations

The powder hounds are bummed, but the corn snow lovers have their nose to the air, sniffing about. Tuesday's storm capped off the snowpack with a widespread rain and wet snow crust, up to an inch thick. Smooth, firm and icy conditions on the upper mountain are likely and slide for life conditions may exist. Rime ice is a hazard for anyone venturing below ice plastered cliffs. Wear a helmet or just avoid these areas. You couldn't buy an avalanche at this time and snow surfaces are challenging: icy and firm, breakable crust to sticky and gloppy during the heat of the day. All trees have shed their snow. Temperatures soared to 63° F in town yesterday, 50° at the Mt. Shasta Ski Park at 1400 hours. Winds were calm.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

There is nothing but sunshine in the box for the foreseeable future. Temperatures are down right balmy this morning. While the general trend is for things to cool off into next week, today will be another warmer one with highs in the mid to upper 40°s F. Tonight's low is right around freezing. Near and above treeline, expect those pesky west/northwest winds to blow. Next best chance at precipitation is later next week.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 37 30 58 43 2 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 35 31 49 37 n/a 0 0 0 Snow depth not working
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 45.5 42 56.5 47 42.2 0 0 0.8
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 46 43.5 54.5 47.5 10 31 WNW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 48.5 41.5 55.5 50 23.3 0 0.8
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 44.5 37.5 54.5 44.5 2 5 WSW 36.7 0 0.7
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 43.5 38.5 50.5 42.5 33.6 0 0.4
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 45 41 53 45 6 21 W

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Friday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Saturday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Mostly sunny Mostly clear Mostly sunny
Temperature (°F) 47 32 47
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 5-10 East/Northeast 10-15 North 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Friday Friday Night Saturday
Weather Mostly sunny, windy Mostly clear, windy Mostly sunny, breezy
Temperature (°F) 34 29 35
Wind (mi/hr) West 25-35 Northwest 10-20 North 15-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 5.75 18.58 31
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 2.17 3.37 64
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 2.17 3.37 64

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.