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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-02-09 06:15

  • EXPIRED ON February 10, 2021 @ 6:15 am
    Published on February 9, 2021 @ 6:15 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. Normal caution is advised. Expect firm conditions above treeline.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Always bring your situational awareness to the backcountry. Identify potential hazards as you travel. Be prepared for slide-for-life conditions if ascending steep terrain. Have your ice axe, crampons, and helmet. Know that self-arrest will be difficult.

Recent Observations

Over the last 24 hours on Mount Shasta, temperatures have averaged 34 ºF, peaking at 40.5 around 1 p.m. West/northwest winds have averaged 12 mi/hr, gusting up to 31. Snow depth is 73 inches.

Above treeline, the snow did not soften yesterday. Snow surfaces consist of large, chalky sustrugis and firm crusts. Wind exposed moraines and ridgelines are becoming more scoured and some rock fall has been observed.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Temperature swings will probably not vary enough to get us a good melt-freeze cycle today. Until Thursday, expect mostly clear skies, day time temperatures in the 20s and 30s, and light to moderate west to northwest winds.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 30 27 50 38 0 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 26 26 43 35 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 26 26 40.5 33.5 72.7 0 0 1.1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 25.5 25.5 37.5 32 12 31 WNW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 32 30 49 38.5 59.6 0 8.5
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 27.5 25.5 42.5 34 2 4 WSW 62.6 0 1.1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 24.5 24.5 39.5 32 54.6 0 0.4
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 24.5 24.5 35 29.5 8 20 W

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Mostly sunny. Partly cloudy. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 37 26 35
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 5-10 Northwest 5-10 Northwest 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Mostly sunny. Windy. Partly cloudy. Blustery. Mostly sunny. Windy.
Temperature (°F) 26 23 24
Wind (mi/hr) West 20-30 Northwest 15-20 Northwest 20-30
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 12.60 24.22 52
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 1.16 1.95 59
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 9.02 9.01 100

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.