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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-02-10 05:30

  • EXPIRED ON February 11, 2021 @ 5:30 am
    Published on February 10, 2021 @ 5:30 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. Normal caution is advised. Be prepared for firm conditions above treeline. A wet storm is on deck for tomorrow.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Bring your situational awareness to the backcountry. Identify potential hazards as you travel. Be prepared for slide-for-life conditions if ascending steep terrain. Have your ice axe, crampons, and helmet and know how to use them. Self-arrest will be difficult. Ridgelines are becoming more scoured and rock fall is possible.

Forecast Discussion

The word on the street is Castle Lake Road is officially open. The gate was open last weekend, but was subsequently closed again Monday to allow the road crew to finish their work. Gate is open and the road is plowed to the parking lot.

Recent Observations

Over the last 24 hours on Mount Shasta, temperatures have averaged 29 ºF, peaking at 36 around 11 a.m. West/northwest winds have averaged 8 mi/hr, gusting up to 25. Snow depth is 72 inches.

Above treeline, the snowpack has not been softening. Snow surfaces consist of large, chalky sustrugis and firm crusts. Wind exposed moraines and ridgelines are becoming more scoured and some rock fall has been observed.

Castle Lake has about 65 inches of snow and has seen several cycles of melt-freeze temperatures.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

There should be enough sun and high enough temperatures (39 ºF) to soften snow surfaces today. Skiers should look for the best snow in open glades near and below treeline. If it softens above treeline, your window will be barely open. Aim for 1-3 p.m. Northwest winds will be light to moderate.

A warm front will begin impacting the area early tomorrow morning bringing high snow levels (5,300 ft) and up to 5 inches of snow at higher elevations.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 29 29 49 38.5 0 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 32 26 38 33
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 28 25 36 29 72 0 0 0.7
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 29 25.5 32.5 28.5 7 25 WNW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 31 29 49.5 35.5 65.5 6 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 29 27 37 31.5 2 5 WSW 61.5 0 1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 28.5 24.5 35 29.5 53.8 0 0.8
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 26 24 32.5 27.5 7 18 W

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Wednesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Mostly sunny. 30 percent chance of snow after 4 a.m. Increasing clouds. Snow, mainly after 10 a.m. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Temperature (°F) 39 28 35
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 0-5 West 0-5 South 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.50 / 1-3
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather Mostly sunny. A 30 percent chance of snow after 4 a.m. Mostly cloudy. Blustery. Snow, mainly after 10 a.m. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Temperature (°F) 25 25 27
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 15-20 West 20-25 South 20-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.50 / 3-5

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 12.60 24.46 52
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 1.16 2.19 53
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 9.02 9.25 98

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.