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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-03-02 05:45

  • EXPIRED ON March 3, 2021 @ 5:45 am
    Published on March 2, 2021 @ 5:45 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. Challenging conditions exist for climbers and skiers. Be prepared for firm, icy conditions above treeline. Look out for falling rock. Below treeline, a melt-freeze cycle is in effect. Winter weather returns this weekend.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Avalanche danger is low. Falling rock and firm, icy snow surfaces are the main concern above treeline. Climbing the mountain is not recommended, but if you attempt it, bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet.

Recent Observations

There is 71 inches of snow at 7,600 ft on Mount Shasta. In the last 24 hours, near treeline temperatures have averaged 28 ºF and peaked at 33. Below treeline temperatures peaked at 37. Measured winds have been light and southerly, though observed winds above treeline were in the moderate range.

The upper mountain is bleak. Dirt and fallen rock are coloring the white brown. Climbing routes do not hold much snow. Skiers will find inconsistent conditions - firm, icy, breakable crusts, sastrugis, thin to deep moist snow. Above treeline, the snow did not soften yesterday. Cornices were rock hard. Below treeline, above Bunny Flat, popular skiing areas are tracked out.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A melt-freeze cycle is fully in effect - daytime temperatures in the 40s, nighttime in the 20s. This is mostly below treeline, though. Above treeline, temperatures and light to moderate south winds will work together to keep the snowpack firm. Direct sun may loosen up south and east facing aspects.

Early Saturday morning, precipitation will return and looks to continue into next week.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 27 27 53 39.5 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 26 26 37 32 0 0 Snow sensor down
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 27.5 25 33.5 28.5 33.8 0 0 55.1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 27 23.5 31.5 27 7 31 SSE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 33.5 28.5 43.5 34 60.8 0 0.9
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 27.5 27.5 37.5 31.5 2 6 SW 57.8 0 0.4
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 30 26.5 35 29.5 56.3 0 0.2
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 26 23 30.5 26 17 45 S

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Mostly sunny. Mostly clear. Mostly sunny
Temperature (°F) 43 26 45
Wind (mi/hr) Southeast 5-10 South 5-10 Southeast 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Mostly sunny. Partly cloudy. Mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 24 24 25
Wind (mi/hr) Southwest 15-20 South 15-20 South 15-20
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 13.58 29.76 46
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 0.00 0.26 0
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 10.00 14.55 69

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.