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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-03-03 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON March 4, 2021 @ 6:00 am
    Published on March 3, 2021 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. Challenging conditions exist for climbers and skiers. Be prepared for firm, icy conditions above treeline. Look out for falling rock. Today will be the last of the warm, sunny days. Low pressure from Alaska will begin to impact the area tomorrow. Snow is coming this weekend and will continue throughout next week.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Avalanche danger is low. Challenging conditions exist for climbers and skiers. Be prepared for firm, icy conditions above treeline. Look out for falling rock. Climbing the mountain is not recommended, but if you attempt it, bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet.

Overhanging cornices exposed to direct sun and warm temperatures may have begun to loosen. Be cautious if traveling above or below them.

Recent Observations

There is 67 inches of snow at 7,600 ft on Mount Shasta. In the last 24 hours, near treeline temperatures have averaged 32 ºF and peaked at 44. Measured winds have been light to moderate and southerly.

There is plenty of dirt and exposed and fallen rock above treeline. Climbing routes do not hold much snow. Skiers will find inconsistent snow surface conditions - soft to firm, sastrugis, crusts, and wind affected chalk.

Castle Lake still has a decent usable snowpack, though manzanita is beginning to poke through on Right Peak. Snow depth is 61 inches. Temperatures peaked there yesterday at 52.5 ºF. The lake is frozen and supportable.

Castle Lake

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Today will be the last day to search for spring skiing conditions. You'll find them mostly near and below treeline or at lower elevations. A series of low pressure systems moving down from Alaska will begin impacting the area early tomorrow. The first system will bring strong to gale force southerly winds and cooler temperatures.

The next one will begin affecting the region Saturday. Snow levels may start high but will drop. We'll see snow at low elevations by Monday. Over the weekend 0.79 inches of precipitable water is expected. This could translate into up to 8 inches of snow. It is a bit early to get excited, but snow is in the forecast everyday next week.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 25 25 61 40 0 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 26 25 43 33 0 Snow sensor down
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 31.5 27.5 44 34.5 33.8 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 32.5 27 38.5 33 5 25 SSW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 37.5 32 52.5 39.5 61.3 0.5 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 26 25.5 43 33.5 2 6 WSW 57.3 0 0.5
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 34.5 29.5 40.5 35 56 0 0.4
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 30 25.5 39 31.5 8 22 S

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Wednesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Increasing clouds. Mostly sunny. Breezy.
Temperature (°F) 45 26 37
Wind (mi/hr) Southeast 5-10 South 5-10 South 15-20
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather Sunny. Breezy. Increasing clouds. Windy. Low wind chills. Mostly sunny. Very windy. Low wind chills.
Temperature (°F) 27 23 26
Wind (mi/hr) South 15-20 Southwest 20-25 Southwest 50-60
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 13.58 30.03 45
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 0.00 0.53 0
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 10.00 14.82 67

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.