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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-03-31 07:00

  • EXPIRED ON April 1, 2021 @ 7:00 am
    Published on March 31, 2021 @ 7:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Spring weather dominates. Loose wet avalanches, cornice breaks, wind slabs in extreme terrain, and rock fall are on the menu. But overall avalanche danger is low. This is not an excuse to drop your awareness. Always pay attention out there. It's the mountains. Be prepared for all conditions.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Very Likely
  • Size ?
    Very Large

Avalanche danger is low. But keep loose wet avalanches and cornice breaks on the radar. The upper snow pack is getting soft in the sun and warm temperatures. These events are not catastrophic usually, but should not be ignored. Do you see rollerballs and pinwheels? Are you sinking up to your ankles? If so, avoid overhanging cornices and steep slopes.

Wind slabs are not yet down for the count. Wind is still blowing snow around at very high elevations. Pay attention in extreme terrain. Slabs will be small and isolated but may still be lurking.

March showers bring April flowers. Is that the right proverb? No. We are a good month early for the climbing season. Climb now if you can. Bring your ice axe, crampons, and helmet. And use them. Keep your head up and don't be a pin in the bowling alley. Be prepared to dodge falling rock.

Recent Observations

Find an open slope exposed to sun, time it right, and you'll be rewarded with creamy, sliding conditions. Wait too long and you can bank on the mank. The snow was getting a bit sloppy by noon yesterday - we were sinking in moist to wet snow up to our boot tops near treeline. A small, loose wet avalanche released in a steep chute on Gray Butte, though the event was probably a few days old.

Temperatures peaked at 44 ºF and stayed near 35 throughout the night. North winds kicked up to moderate speeds yesterday afternoon and unbelievably were still transporting snow on high elevation ridges.

The Old Ski Bowl weather station has been acting funky. Circuit breakers have been throwing up there for mysterious reasons. We continue to debug the situation. For now it is back online.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

High pressure. Sunny. Clear. Sunny. High near 50. Light winds even above treeline. That should tell you everything for the next couple of days. Spring time conditions will dominate. Climbing and skiing conditions could be good.

A blip of precipitation is expected starting Sunday as low pressure begins to flex its influence in the area.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 33 31 67 49.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 26 21 48 33 0 0 Snow sensor down
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 36.5 32.5 43.5 37 79.5 0 0 0 Station Down
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 36.5 30 42 37.5 13 55 SE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 36 20 48.5 37.5 68.8 0 0.8
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 34 28.5 45.5 36.5 2 7 WSW 67.4 0 1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 33 14 33 23.5 69.4 0 0.5
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 26.5 17 39.5 31 3 13 WSW

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Wednesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 53 28 49
Wind (mi/hr) Southeast 0-5 South 5-10 South 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather Sunny Clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 41 33 33
Wind (mi/hr) Southeast 5-10 South 10-15 Southwest 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2021 (the wet season) 17.15 35.33 49
Month to Date (since May 1, 2022) 3.57 5.83 61
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2022) 13.57 20.12 67


This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.