You are here

Forecast Addendum - 12/13/2022 - 07:00am

Submitted by mmadden on Tue, 12/13/2022 - 4:04am
Recent Observations: 

The recent storm this past weekend brought 25-35 inches of new snow to the area. A brief period of graupel on Friday December 9 created a weak layer within this new storm snow. This can be found roughly 30 inches down from the snow surface. Slab avalanches reported over the weekend all failed on this weak layer. Forecasters have continued to monitor this and it's showing signs of strengthening. No new avalanches have been reported occurring since December 11. The highest danger for storm slabs is the 48 hours immediately after the new snowfall. While this graupel layer has shown signs of improving, an avalanche may still be possible in the right terrain. Continue to evaluate the stability of steep slopes today while the new snow continues to settle.

Highlights of recently reported avalanche activity

  • December 10, 2022 - A 2-ft deep, 148-ft wide natural slab avalanche (D2/R4) on a NE aspect of Coyote Butte
  • December 11, 2022 - A 2-ft deep, 60-ft wide skier triggered slab avalanche (D2/R3) on a west aspect of Gray butte. 
  • December 11, 2022 - A 8-ft deep, 100-ft wide slab avalanche reported in 3rd Chute at Mt. Ashland Ski Bowl when an artificially triggered 2-3ft deep slab avalanche stepped down to ground level.
  • December 12, 2022 - A 1-3 day old slab avalanche was seen by Mt. Shasta Ski Park ski patrol east of the ski park boundary.
  • All four reported slab avalanches were big enough to bury, injure, or kill a person.
Mountain Weather: 

Expect sunshine and clear skies throughout the day. Temperatures will increase into the upper 20°s F as high pressure settles in over the region. No precipitation is forecasted to arrive until this weekend. Winds should remain calm-to-light near and below treeline. Noteworthy is that our December snowpack is at 100% of normal, setting up a great start to the winter season. Remember to bring sun protection when heading into the mountains today. Snow reflects 80-90% of incoming sunlight and you could get sunburned from both above and below!

 

(Left) Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies in the region. (Right) Forecast models showing mostly sunny weather.

Source: (Left) GOES-W, NOAA (Right) NexLab, College of DuPage, NAM.

Today 7-8 Weather : 
Sunny and clear. Freezing level below 4,000'
Today 7-8 Wind Direction: 
N
Today 8-9 Weather: 
Sunny and clear
Today 8-9 Wind Direction: 
N
Tomorrow 7-8 Weather: 
Sunny and clear. Freezing level below 4,000'
Tomorrow 7-8 Wind Direction: 
NE
Tomorrow 8-9 Weather: 
Sunny and clear
Tomorrow 8-9 Wind Direction: 
N
Tonight 7-8 Weather: 
Sunny and clear. Freezing level below 4,000'
Tonight 7-8 Wind Direction: 
N
Tonight 8-9 Weather: 
Sunny and clear
Tonight 8-9 Wind Direction: 
N
Today 7-8 Temp: 
27
Today 8-9 Temp: 
15
Tomorrow 7-8 Temp: 
31
Tomorrow 8-9 Temp: 
19
Tonight 7-8 Temp: 
19
Tonight 8-9 Temp: 
9
11
10
26
17
18
13
26
18
64.12
0
0
Grey Butte Temp Cur: 
18
Grey Butte Temp Min: 
13.5
Grey Butte Temp Max: 
27
Grey Butte Temp Avg: 
18.5
Grey Butte Wind Cur: 
2.5
Grey Butte Wind Max: 
12.5
Grey Butte Wind Gust Max: 
36.8
Grey Butte Wind Avg: 
E
Castle Lake Temp Cur: 
20
Castle Lake Temp Min: 
20
Castle Lake Temp Max: 
24
Castle Lake Temp Avg: 
21.5
Mount Eddy Temp Cur: 
25
Mount Eddy Temp Min: 
19.5
Mount Eddy Temp Max: 
25
Mount Eddy Temp Avg: 
20.5
Mount Eddy Wind Cur: 
2
Mount Eddy Wind Max: 
3.5
Mount Eddy Wind Gust Max: 
6.61
Mount Eddy Wind Avg: 
SSE
Mount Eddy Snow Depth: 
43.52
Mount Eddy Snow New: 
0
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Cur: 
14
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Min: 
14
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Max: 
21
Ash Creek Bowl Temp Avg: 
18
Ash Creek Bowl Snow New: 
0
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Cur: 
12
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Min: 
12
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Max: 
19
Ash Creek Ridge Temp Avg: 
15
Mt. Shasta City Temp Cur: 
26
Mt. Shasta City Temp Min: 
26
Mt. Shasta City Temp Max: 
37
Mt. Shasta City Temp Avg: 
33.5
Mt. Shasta City Wind Cur: 
0
Mt. Shasta City Wind Min: 
0
Mt. Shasta City Wind Max: 
7
Mt. Shasta City Wind Avg: 
2
Grey Butte Wind Min: 
0
Grey Butte Wind Avg: 
4
Mount Eddy Wind Min: 
1.5
Mount Eddy Wind Avg: 
2.5
Ski Bowl Snow Settlement: 
2.4
Mount Eddy Snow Settlement: 
2.2
Ash Creek Bowl Snow Settlement: 
1.9
Measured Precipitation Oct: 
5.91
Normal Precipitation Oct: 
8.2
Percent Precipitation Oct: 
72
Measured Precipitation MTD: 
2.58
Normal Precipitation MTD: 
2.57
Percent Precipitation MTD: 
100
Measured Precipitation YTD: 
13.86
Normal Precipitation YTD: 
33.58
Percent Precipitation YTD: 
41
Today SWE: 
0.00
Tonight SWE: 
0.00
Tomorrow SWE: 
0.00
Today Wind Max 7-9: 
10
Tonight Wind Max 7-9: 
10
Tomorrow Wind Max 7-9: 
10
Today Wind Min 7-9: 
0
Tonight Wind Min 7-9: 
0
Tomorrow Wind Min 7-9: 
0
Today Wind Max 9-11: 
20
Tonight Wind Max 9-11: 
20
Tomorrow Wind Max 9-11: 
15
Today Wind Min 9-11: 
10
Tonight Wind Min 9-11: 
10
Tomorrow Wind Min 9-11: 
5
Today Snow Max 7-9: 
0.00
Tonight Snow Max 7-9: 
0.00
Tomorrow Snow Max 7-9: 
0.00
Today Snow Min 7-9: 
0.00
Tonight Snow Min 7-9: 
0.00
Tomorrow Snow Min 7-9: 
0.00
Today Snow Max 9-11: 
0.00
Tonight Snow Max 9-11: 
0.00
Tomorrow Snow Max 9-11: 
0.00
Today Snow Min 9-11: 
0.00
Tonight Snow Min 9-11: 
0.00
Tomorrow Snow Min 9-11: 
0.00
Ash Creek Bowl HS: 
60.04
Weather Station Discussion: 
The table below summarizes data reported from all of our weather stations over the last 24 hours.
Seasonal Stats Discussion: 
The wet season is October 1 through May 1. The table below summarizes recorded vs. normal precipitation amounts for the City of Mount Shasta.
Overall Danger Rating: 
Moderate
Current Time: 
3:00 AM