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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-02-04 06:11:52
- EXPIRED ON February 5, 2018 @ 6:11 amPublished on February 4, 2018 @ 6:11 am
- Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLarge
NORMAL CAUTION means:
- Always watch for isolated slabs.
- Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
- Don't regroup in run out zones.
- Basic avalanche rescue skills are essential in avalanche terrain.
Isolated slabs are generally related to wind and terrain. Look for places where small areas of drifting have occurred and firm layers of surface snow overlie softer layers. Often this will occur on the lee side of ridges, in terrain depressions, on convex terrain features and in the lee of isolated bands of trees.
Coverage on Mount Shasta is still good, and our snowpack has been surprisingly resilient to the record-breaking warm weather. A melt-freeze cycle is beginning, and spring-like corn snow conditions can be found with good planning. Continue to exercise normal caution. There is always some degree of risk, and even traveling on a LOW danger day is not a 100% guarantee of safety. Rime icefall remains a significant hazard, especially in Avalanche Gulch below Redbanks and the Trinity Chutes.
- For 8 consecutive days, temperatures have remained above freezing up to 8,000 ft.
- No avalanches or signs of instability have been observed in several days.
- A usable snowpack exists above 6,500 ft with a range in snow height of 1-4 ft.
- Variable snow surfaces exist including wind eroded features, supportable crusts, and firm icy areas.
- Below 8,000 ft, moist, unconsolidated snow can be found.
- Rime ice continues to fall from high elevation rock formations on Mount Shasta.
- A corn-like cycle is beginning with the best skiing and riding conditions found on south and east aspects by mid-day.
Weather and Current Conditions
Unseasonably warm and dry weather continues. Today, expect sunny skies, highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, and moderate northwest winds. High pressure off the coast of California looks to block any chance of precipitation during the first half of February. Visit the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for long-term outlooks on temperature and precipitation.
24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM
|Weather Station||Temp (°F)||Wind (mi/hr)||Snow (in)||Comments|
|Cur||Min||Max||Avg||Avg||Max Gust||Dir||Depth||New||Water Equivalent||Settlement|
|Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft)||38||37||62||51||4||N|
|Sand Flat (6750 ft)||32||32||50||38||21||0||0||0|
|Ski Bowl (7600 ft)||38.5||38||53||42||41||0||0||.5|
|Gray Butte (8000 ft)||41||38||49||43||5||18||SSW|
|Castle Lake (5870 ft)||45||42||48||45||9||0||0|
|Mount Eddy (6509 ft)||43||41||47||44||3||14||S||22||0||1|
|Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)||station down|
|Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)||station down|
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
|For 7000 ft to 9000 ft|
|Wind Speed (mi/hr)||5-10 mi/hr||5-10 mi/hr||10-15 mi/hr|
|Expected Snowfall (in)||0||0||0|
|For 9000 ft to 11000 ft|
|Weather||Sunny and windy||Mostly clear and windy||Sunny and windy|
|Wind Speed (mi/hr)||15-20 mi/hr||20-30 mi/hr||25-35 mi/hr|
|Expected Snowfall (in)||0||0||0|
Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City
|Period||Measured (in)||Normal (in)||Percent of Normal (%)|
|From Oct 1, 2017 (the wet season)||10.11||22.75||44|
|Month to Date (since Nov 1, 2018)||0.00||0.48||0|
|Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2018)||4.28||7.54||57|