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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-12-06 06:46

  • EXPIRED ON December 7, 2018 @ 6:46 am
    Published on December 6, 2018 @ 6:46 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

The avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations and aspects. Exercise normal caution. LOW avalanche danger does not mean NO avalanche danger. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully as you travel in the backcountry.
An ice axe, crampons, and helmet will be prudent if climbing above treeline.
Shallow buried rocks and trees exist everywhere.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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    Very Likely
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Generally safe avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry. Both natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Exercise NORMAL CAUTION and watch for the odd wind slab(s) on leeward slopes. Wind pillows, hollow sounding snow, shooting cracks, and harder snow atop softer snow are signs that a wind slab may be nearby.

Forecast Discussion

Snow on the ground means sliders, riders and perhaps some climbers are out and about. Winds hammered the mountain near the beginning of December, scouring ridgelines and creating firm snow surfaces above treeline. Many classic avalanche starting zones are a salt and pepper mix of snow and rock. Use normal caution and instead of avalanches, think slide for life.  Lower down, rocks and trees lurk. 

Sheltered, shady and cold aspects retain soft snow. Sunny, southerly aspects have been impacted by recent sun, but low sun angle and short days have limited total destruction.

Approximately 48 more hours of clear and calm weather will be followed by an active period of what we like to call... WINTERsmiley Count them down! Stay tuned, be safe, have fun.

 

Recent Observations

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Check out all recent observation reports below from Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy for a full tour of the forecast area. Despite a couple small avalanches on Gray Butte (see observation), our winter snowpack rests with confidence and is set up well for more snow in the future. Since November 27th, daytime highs have not gone above 32.5 degrees F at the Old Ski Bowl, Gray Butte and Mount Eddy weather stations. These chilly temps are a testament to the persistently soft snow surface conditions that many have enjoyed.  Many portions of our terrain, such as the Castle Lake area, still need more snow to pose avalanche threat. 

 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Dry, sunny and calm weather will prevail for the near future with low level fog and smoke in the valleys. Winter stoke will continue however as a progressing pattern is evolving across the North Pacific with a very active jet stream. A weak front will move in Friday night into Saturday. While fairly weak, it will mark the beginning of an active period of weather across the Pacific Northwest. This period will feature several frontal systems that will impact our weather in the form of wind, rain and snow. Snow levels appear to remain mostly in the 4,000 to 6,000 foot range, dipping lower at times.

Curious about the status of EL NINO? Click HERE

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 26 26 45 35 0 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 20 20 33 27 28 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 28 23 31.5 27 36 1.8 0.01 2.4
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 28 21.5 28 25.5 12 31 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 station down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 23 21 33.5 25.5 2 5 WSW 31.3 1.2 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 33 24 35
Wind (mi/hr) E 0-5 E 0-5 SE 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Mostly sunny then partly cloudy and breezy
Temperature (°F) 24 24 27
Wind (mi/hr) NE 5-10 NW 0 W 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 5.08 8.49 60
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 0.35 1.13 31
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 20.36 36.49 56

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.