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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-01-25 06:07

  • EXPIRED ON January 26, 2019 @ 6:07 am
    Published on January 25, 2019 @ 6:07 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

The avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. Exercise normal caution. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and a helmet if venturing above treeline. Scoured, icy slopes present slide for life conditions.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?

Exercise normal caution in the backcountry:

  • Carry a beacon, shovel, and probe and know how to use them.
  • Create a travel plan; stick to your travel plan.
  • Actively look for evidence of instability while on the snow such as fresh wind slabs or unstable cornices.
  • Communicate well within your group. Expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain.

Forecast Discussion

It's variable out there folks. Very nice, spring-like conditions have been found as well as many other forms of riding surfaces reserved for the courageous. In the alpine regions, scoured, icy slopes present slide for life conditions. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are a very good idea, but realize that self-arrest will be difficult.

Nothing but clear skies coming at you! Check out the NOAA Climate Prediction Center weather outlooks for the remainder of the season.

Recent Observations

Temperatures have ranged from 33 to 44 degrees F in the last 24 hours near 7,600 feet. Winds have died off, averaging 4 mi/hr, gusting up to 20 mi/hr. Height of snow (HS) at 7,600 feet is 254 cm (100 in). 

Below treeline, it is rough with rain runnels and frozen, breakable and lumpy snow surfaces dominating. Near treeline, transitional snow surfaces will be encountered as rain runnels dissipate and wind blown and sometimes breakable snow forms begin. Above treeline, firm conditions with icy ridgelines and morain tops, variable sastrugi formations and perhaps a bit of soft snow in the gullies can be found. Southerly facing, sunny slopes have been hosting supportable and decent corn snow. 

No avalanches or signs of instability have been observed since last weekend.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

There will not be much change in the weather pattern that will sustain through the start of next week. An upper level ridge builds over the area, keeping things sunny and dry. Low clouds and fog in the late evening into the morning hours is likely. Daytime high temperatures will be warming, with light winds. A pattern change is possible mid-late next week as a Pacific system tries to break through the ridge. Specifics are still being sorted out at this time.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 3:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 31 31 48 39.5 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 27 25 43 31 83 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 35.5 32 45.5 38.5 99 0 0 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 38 33.5 44.5 39.5 4 37 ENE
Castle Lake (5870 ft)
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 40.5 32 43.5 38 2 10 WSW 74 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Friday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Friday Night
(11 p.m. to 5 a.m.)
Saturday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 48 30 50
Wind (mi/hr) North 5-10 Northeast 5-10 Northeast 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Friday Friday Night Saturday
Weather Sunny and breezy Clear and breezy Sunny
Temperature (°F) 34 34 41
Wind (mi/hr) North 10-15 Northeast 0 North 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2019 (the wet season) 13.93 20.79 67
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2020) 5.52 5.58 99
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2020) 5.52 5.58 99

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.