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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-03-04 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON March 5, 2019 @ 6:00 am
    Published on March 4, 2019 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. Exercise normal caution in the backcountry but always watch for unstable snow in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Roads to Bunny Flat and Castle Lake are closed. Unstable weather returns late tomorrow.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely, but not impossible. Watch for unstable snow in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Otherwise exercise normal caution which means:

  • Have a plan, stick to the plan.
  • Travel one at a time on and below steep slopes.
  • Bring the gear and skills necessary for avalanche rescue.

Forecast Discussion

Remember the snowmobile boundaries are still in effect even though the road to Bunny Flat is closed. Please continue to respect them. Thank you!

Recent Observations

Height of snow in the Old Ski Bowl is 176 inches. Snow has settled about 4 inches in the last 24 hours. Temperatures ranged from 23 to 38 degrees. West/northwest winds have been light, averaging 7 mi/hr and gusting up to 18.

No recent signs of avalanches or other signs of instability were seen in the Old Ski Bowl yesterday afternoon. No wind transport of snow was observed. The very large sastrugis formed during last week's storm have been filled in with new and blown snow creating deep sled-wrecking pock marks in places, but moraines and gullies still hold smooth, usable snow for sliders and riders. Slopes below ridges were wind textured. Below treeline snow had become heavy and moist.

 

Everitt Memorial Highway (road to Bunny Flat) is closed. If that is closed, plan on Castle Lake Road being closed, which it is. There is still much work to be done to clear Everitt. Expect at least a couple days to get it opened. Once it is opened, the county will begin work on Castle Lake Road.

 
 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Continue to enjoy the break from inclement weather today and tomorrow. Rest that lower back. Temperatures near treeline will be in the high 20s, west and southwest winds will be light to moderate, and no precipitation to speak of is expected.

A winter storm watch will go into effect after 4 p.m. tomorrow as low pressure off the coast of northern California begins pushing warmer, wetter air into the area. Close to two inches of precipitable water is expected by the weekend, most of which will come Wednesday. Snow levels will be near 5000 feet.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 35 35 48 39.5 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft)
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 25 23 37.5 29 176 0 0 3.9
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 24.5 24.5 35 28 7 18 WNW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 30.5 30.5 40 34 139.9 0 4.3
Mount Eddy (6509 ft)
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Monday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Monday Night
(11 p.m. to 5 a.m.)
Tuesday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Weather A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny. Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., then snow after 4 p.m.
Temperature (°F) 28 25 33
Wind (mi/hr) Southwest 5-10 South 0-5 South 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / trace
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A 40 percent chance of snow showers after 10 a.m. Cloudy. Windy and gusty.
Temperature (°F) 18 18 22
Wind (mi/hr) West 15-20 Southwest 0 Southwest 20-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / trace

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2019 (the wet season) 29.66 30.28 98
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2020) 0.13 0.78 17
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2020) 21.25 15.07 141

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.