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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-12-17 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON December 18, 2019 @ 6:00 am
    Published on December 17, 2019 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. An extended period of wetter weather begins tomorrow night.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
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Exercise normal caution when traveling in the backcountry. This means:

  • Evaluate the snowpack if traveling in or near steep terrain. 
  • Always watch for isolated slabs on leeward terrain.
  • Continue to carry rescue gear and know how to use it. Mandatory rescue gear includes: avalanche beacon, shovel, and probe.
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are always essential when you travel in avalanche terrain.

Forecast Discussion

Where are we at compared to last season? At this time last year, we had received 61.6 inches of snow at 7,600 ft.  The average temperature was 30°F. By comparison, we are currently at 66.5 inches with the average temperature at 26°F. See our weather history page for more details.

Recent Observations

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In the last 24 hours at the Old Ski Bowl, temperatures have ranged from 18 to 32°F. East winds were light to moderate, though no snow transport was observed.

Snow surfaces above treeline are a mixed bag - sun and wind crusts, sastrugis, and rime. Determined skiers are still finding low density snow suitable for recreating in. Look for these conditions near and below treeline, on northerly aspects, and in wind protected areas. Light winds and cold temperatures have allowed the Eddies to continue to host several inches of soft snow. See yesterday's observation for details.

No signs of instability or avalanche danger have been seen in the forecast area. Surface hoar exists on northerly aspects near and below treeline.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Over the next 24 hours, no new precipitation is expected. South winds will be strong near and above treeline. Freezing levels will range from 5,100 to 4,500 ft. Be prepared for low wind chills.

An extended period of wet weather will begin Wednesday night as Mount Shasta experiences the southern edge of an atmospheric river flowing into the Pacific Northwest. All told, we are looking to get just under 2 inches of precipitable water by Saturday night, with the bulk of this falling on Saturday. Snow levels will start at 4,000 ft Wednesday night, rise to 6,000 ft late Thursday, and will then drop to 4,500 - 5,500 ft Saturday morning.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 33 23 43 30.5 2 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 25 14 30 25 33 0 0 3
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 31 20.5 32.5 28 40.4 0 0 2.1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 27.5 23.5 29.5 27.5 11 25 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 28 24 31.5 28.5 2 11 SW 30.9 3.7 3.5
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A 30 percent chance of snow after 4 a.m. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 4 p.m. Mostly cloudy.
Temperature (°F) 25 25 27
Wind (mi/hr) South 15-20 South 10-15 South 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.03 / 0-0.50
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Mostly cloudy. Windy with low wind chills. Gusty. Mostly cloudy. Windy with low wind chills. Gusty. A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy. Windy with low wind chills. Gusty.
Temperature (°F) 21 13 21
Wind (mi/hr) South 30-40 South 30-40 South 25-30
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.03 / 0-0.50

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 8.04 11.20 72
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 5.36 3.84 140
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 45.78 39.20 117

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.