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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-04-07 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON April 8, 2020 @ 6:00 am
    Published on April 7, 2020 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is MODERATE above treeline due to concern for wind slab avalanches. Continue to approach slopes above 35 degrees with mindfulness. Sunny, warming weather will increase concern for point-releases on steep, sunlit aspects. Clear weather will prevail through the weekend.

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab

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Moderate east winds blew all night long. With plenty of snow available for transport, new wind slabs may have formed above treeline on westerly facing aspects. There is less concern for old wind slabs. If you encounter cracking or blocking snow in wind drifted areas, skier-triggered avalanches will be possible on nearby slopes above 35 degrees.

Forecast Discussion

As the sun comes out and temperatures rise, sunlit aspects will begin to release roller balls and pinwheels. This is a sign that loose wet avalanches (point-releases/sluffs) may be possible. If slopes are exhibiting these signs, they are best avoided.

The Shasta/Trinity National Forest is under COVID-19 Restrictions. The bathrooms at Bunny Flat are not maintained regularly. Use in case of "emergency". Bring hand sanitizer. Take your trash home with you. Socialize at a distance. Postpone your ski-cation for now.

Recent Observations

Yesterday, temperatures poked above freezing for about 3 hours. This, combined with a greenhouse effect from thin, low clouds, softened the surface snow. Winds were calm to light above treeline until about 8 p.m. when moderate east winds, 16-23 mi/hr, kicked in and blew all night. Generally very little wind effect was seen above treeline yesterday afternoon. However, some small wind slabs were seen in isolated areas along the top of Casaval Ridge. Hand tests produced easy planar failures in these drifted areas.

Low visibility limited visuals on the upper mountain though skiers reported seeing debris from a large (D2/D3) avalanche near Helen Lake. A significant wind event observed briefly Sunday afternoon blowing snow onto the Trinity Chutes may be the culprit. We hope to get more information on this today.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Today, expect sunny, warming weather with a high of 45 degrees near treeline. Winds will be light and northerly.

It'll be clear sailing for a while as a high pressure ridge centered over the northeast dominates the weather pattern for the next 7 days. Expect mostly sunny and warmer conditions through the weekend.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 38 32 49 39.5 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 22 22 34 29 64 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 29.5 18.5 33.5 28.5 100.3 0 0.07 2.1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 31.5 18.5 32.5 28.5 12 31 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 31.5 25 39 33 56.8 0 6.1
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 30.5 22 34.5 29 1 7 WSW 77.1 0 4.9
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Tuesday Night
(11 p.m. to 5 a.m.)
Wednesday
(5 a.m to 11 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Mostly clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 45 28 51
Wind (mi/hr) North 5-10 Northeast 5-10 Northeast 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Sunny. Mostly clear. Sunny. Breezy.
Temperature (°F) 27 27 32
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 10-15 Northeast 15-20 East 20-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 17.17 36.16 47
Month to Date (since Oct 1, 2020) 2.00 0.70 286
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2020) 8.24 20.95 39

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.