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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-02-24 07:00

  • EXPIRED ON February 25, 2021 @ 7:00 am
    Published on February 24, 2021 @ 7:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. Be prepared for strong northerly winds above treeline.  Colder temperatures and winds will keep snow surfaces firm. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Winds will knock you over. Temperatures will keep snow surfaces challenging for sliding and climbing. Identify potential hazards as you travel and be prepared if something unexpected happens. 

Traveling under large overhanging cornices at elevations where temperatures are above freezing and aspects are exposed to the direct sun is not recommended.

Forecast Discussion

A Level I avalanche course is being offered March 5-7 through College of the Siskiyous. We have been told that the instructors are mostly friendly. But seriously, this is a great way to get some avalanche education at an affordable rate. Click here for more info.

Recent Observations

If you managed to get above treeline yesterday on Mount Shasta, you probably got blown over. Trust me on that one. Snow surfaces barely softened. The best snow for sliding was in open glades below treeline and "best" did not equate to good.

Snow was still being transported at high elevations, though no signs of wind slab formation were seen. Cornices would not budge.

We've been getting calls about climbing this summer. The upper mountain now, though spackled in white, does not have much more usable snow than it does in August. Climbing routes are thin. Let's hope the next couple of months are good to us. We are at 48% of normal precipitation for the season.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Mostly clear conditions will continue. Above treeline, strong to gale force winds will blow from the north. Temperatures will be near or below freezing. A smidgen of snow may fall this weekend but it is barely worth mentioning -- but we are still three days out and forecasts can change. Stay tuned ....

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 29 29 55 41 6
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 26 26 42 34 0 0 Snow sensor down
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 33.5 26.5 41.5 34.5 79.5 0 0 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 34 27 39.5 33.5 21 67 N
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 18.5 18.5 42 30.5 64.4 0 2.6
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 22 19 39.5 30.5 3 7 SE 60.5 0 0.7
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 14.5 14.5 39 27.5 58.1 0 0.3
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 12 12 34 24 14 29 W

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Wednesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Breezy. Mostly clear. Partly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 33 21 39
Wind (mi/hr) North 10-20 Northeast 5-10 Northwest 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather Sunny. Very windy. Low wind chills. Mostly clear. Windy. Low wind chills. Partly sunny. Very windy. Low wind chills.
Temperature (°F) 26 26 27
Wind (mi/hr) North 60-70 North 30-40 North 40-50
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 13.58 28.14 48
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 2.14 5.87 36
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 10.00 12.93 77

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.