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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-02-25 05:15

  • EXPIRED ON February 26, 2021 @ 5:15 am
    Published on February 25, 2021 @ 5:15 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. Be prepared for strong northerly winds above treeline. Colder temperatures and winds will keep snow surfaces firm. Isolated wind slabs may still be found at high elevations.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Very Likely
  • Size ?
    Very Large

Take the time to secure your guylines if you are planning on camping above treeline. It's going to be wild ride. Strong to gale force northwest winds will continue to pummel the mountain. There is still snow being transported so you should pay attention on southerly and easterly slopes at high elevations. Blocking and cracking snow are indications that wind slabs are lurking nearby.

Forecast Discussion

A Level I avalanche course is being offered March 5-7 through College of the Siskiyous.  Click here for more info.

Recent Observations

I don't know where it was coming from, but strong northerly winds were still blowing snow yesterday. There was snow in the air even at Red Fir Flats. You could see it miles away blowing over the Trinity Chutes and Red Banks -- mostly sublimating, though. It seems unlikely that fresh wind slabs were forming, but keep them in mind on south and east facing slopes at high elevations. Cornices are hard and will not budge even under extreme stomping.

Winds have been hilarious. They've been determined to blow you off your feet -- and have succeeded. Don't expect favorable conditions above treeline for anything.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

You might get a cycle of spring skiing today with above freezing temperatures and partly sunny weather expected. Winds above treeline will probably keep snow surfaces mostly firm, though. Stick to open areas at lower elevations for the best sliding conditions. Northwest winds will increase throughout the day gaining gale force speeds tonight.

Some models are forecasting a bit of snow tonight and tomorrow but I'll have to see it to believe it. You can probably leave your powder boards at home.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 29 29 55 41 6
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 19 17 30 23 0 0 1 Snow sensor down
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 27.5 19.5 40 29 78.5 0 0 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 29 20.5 35.5 28 14 67 N
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 24 17.5 32.5 25 64.4 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 32 18 32 24 3 8 WSW 59.8 0 0.7
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 26.5 12 29.5 21.5 57.8 0 0.4
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 29 8.5 29 19.5 5 26 SSE

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Partly sunny. Mostly clear. Breezy. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 40 21 34
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 10-15 Northwest 20-25 Northwest 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Partly sunny. Windy. Low wind chills. A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly clear. Very windy. Low wind chills. A slight chance of snow showers before 10 a.m., then a slight chance of snow showers after 4 p.m. Sunny. Windy. Low wind chills.
Temperature (°F) 26 23 23
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 35-45 Northwest 55-65 Northwest 45-55
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2022 (the wet season) 13.58 28.42 48
Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2023) 2.14 6.15 35
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2023) 10.00 13.21 76


This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.