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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-02-27 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON February 28, 2021 @ 6:00 am
    Published on February 27, 2021 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. Expect dangerously strong northerly winds above treeline. Colder temperatures and winds will keep snow surfaces firm. Slide-for-life conditions exist. Isolated wind slabs may still be found on leeward aspects. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
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Expect gale-force winds with gust strong enough to sweep you off your feet if you plan to travel to upper elevations today. Be prepared for cold temperatures and firm snow surfaces. An ice axe and crampons are mandatory if climbing onto steep slopes. Keep your guylines tight, and be prepared for a wild night if camping above treeline. Snow is still being transported around, so pay attention to steep southerly and easterly slopes. Blocking, cracking, and hollow-sounding snow are signs that wind slabs are lurking nearby. 

Forecast Discussion

A Level I avalanche course is being offered March 5-7 through College of the Siskiyous.  Click here for more info.

Recent Observations

Impressively strong northwest winds have pummeled the mountain and there are no signs that it will stop anytime soon. Any exposed snow has blown away or turned to wind-pressed chalk and scoured icy patches. It is possible to find skiable snow in protected areas at lower elevations. The wind has kept surfaces firm. Below is a look at the temps and wind speeds on Gray Butte over the past 24 hours. 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Strong northerly winds will continue to blast away. There is a small storm skipping through Oregon. Some clouds may have spilled into our area last night. These should blow away early this morning. Temperatures are cooler with highs in the lower to mid 30s ℉. Next best chance at precipitation is next weekend. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 36
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 20 18 31 25 0 0 0 0 Snow sensor down
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 20.5 18.5 32.5 25 75 0 0 2.1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 22 16.5 32 23.5 36 86 NW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 20.5 19.5 41 25.5 64 0 1.4
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 19.5 17.5 32 23 3 10 SE 59.2 0 0.3
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 16 15 24 19 56.8 0 1.1
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 12.5 12 19.5 15 24 62 W

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Saturday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Saturday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Sunday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Breezy. Mostly clear. Sunny
Temperature (°F) 33 21 43
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 15-20 Northwest 15-20 Northwest 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
Weather Sunny. Very windy. Low wind chills. Clear. Very windy. Low wind chills. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 20 20 33
Wind (mi/hr) North 55-65 North 55-60 North 45-50
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 13.58 28.96 47
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 2.14 6.69 32
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 10.00 13.75 73

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.