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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-02-28 05:30

  • EXPIRED ON March 1, 2021 @ 5:30 am
    Published on February 28, 2021 @ 5:30 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is low. Snow surfaces are firm and variable. The main concern is a slip or fall on steep icy slopes that terminate into exposed rocky patches. Wear a helmet, and use crampons and an ice axe if climbing the mountain. Watch for falling ice or rocks.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
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Compacting winds and a week of diurnal freeze-thaw cycles have settled and consolidated the snowpack. Triggering an avalanche is unlikely. The main hazard today is the potential for long sliding falls on firm icy surfaces. Be willing to step back into safer terrain if conditions warrant. An ice axe, crampons, and a helmet are necessary if climbing at higher elevations. Falling rocks or ice on the upper mountain is probable due to gusty northeasterly wind today.

Forecast Discussion

A Level I avalanche course is being offered March 5-7 through College of the Siskiyous.  Click here for more info.

Recent Observations

Powerful northwest winds pummeled the mountain yesterday. Large plumes of blowing snow were streaming from the upper mountain. Snow surfaces are a mixed bag of textures. Below treeline host breakable melt-freeze crusts in protected areas. Firm supportable surfaces dominate as well as chalky previously wind-transported snow. Near and above treeline terrain is very wind affected and largely scoured. Firm windboard and sculpted sastrugi features exist on the ribbons that are left. More snow is remaining at lower elevations. Below is a comparison of Avalanche Gulch before and after the wind events this week.

< February 20th - February 27th >

 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Dry and windy conditions continue today, though not as windy as yesterday. The temperature will be warmer as well.  Expect highs in the lower to mid-40s ℉. A storm off the cost will split into two and completely miss us on Monday. This will cause a shift to southerly winds this week. High-pressure persists with warm days and cool nights. We will have a chance of snow on Friday and throughout the weekend. Unfortunately, the majority of these storms will miss us again, drat. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 36
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 20 20 37 25 0 0 0 0 Snow sensor down
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 22.5 19 36 25.5 72 0 0 2.9
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 24.5 20.5 33.5 25.5 20 92 N
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 21 20 32.5 24.5 63.2 0 1.6
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 27.5 19.5 28 24 4 10 SE 58.9 0 0.3
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 22 16 28.5 20.5 57 0.2 0
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 18 12.5 18.5 16 9 31 WNW

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Sunday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Sunday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Mostly clear. Sunny
Temperature (°F) 43 24 40
Wind (mi/hr) Northeast 5-10 East 5-10 South 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather Sunny. Breezy. Mostly clear. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 31 25 25
Wind (mi/hr) North 35-40 Southeast 10-15 South 25-30
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 13.58 29.23 46
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 2.14 6.96 31
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 10.00 14.02 71

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.