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Avalanche Forecast for 2021-04-06 05:30

  • EXPIRED ON April 7, 2021 @ 5:30 am
    Published on April 6, 2021 @ 5:30 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Overall avalanche danger is low. Slips and falls on icy surfaces and falling rock are the main concern. Be mindful of loose wet avalanches and cornice breaks, especially during the hottest hours of the day. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Normal caution is advised in the backcountry. Slips and falls on icy surfaces that terminate into rocks are more of a concern than avalanches. However, the warm spring sunshine will melt snow surfaces, and loose wet avalanches or cornice breaks are not impossible. Do you see rollerballs and pinwheels? Are you sinking up to your ankles? If so, avoid overhanging cornices and steep slopes. 

Forecast Discussion

We've had a dry winter. Precipitation is 48% of normal. High wind events have left the upper mountain scoured and rocky. Climbs this season will host more risk than normal. The optimal climbing season has been pushed months earlier this year. If you plan to climb the south side of Mount Shasta, now is the time. The climbing routes around The Heart and through the Red Banks in Avalanche Gulch are already narrow or melted out. If ascending anywhere below exposed rocks, keep your head up and helmet on! 

The Bunny Flat trailhead is the only open trailhead accessible by vehicle at this time. See yesterday's trailhead update for information on the state of other trailheads. Except for Bunny Flat, all summit passes, wilderness permits, and human waste packout bags must be attained at the McCloud or Mount Shasta Ranger Stations (self-issue) or at The Fifth Season in Mt. Shasta.

Recent Observations

Snow surfaces vary from smooth to bumpy on the dirty strips of snow on the upper mountain. Wind-carved sastrugis are everywhere. Softening snow can be found on aspects receiving direct sunlight, but vastly different degrees of softness will be found at slight variations in aspect and elevation.  Many old tracks and boot prints exist below Lake Helen. It's still possible to ski to Bunny Flat via the lower climber's gully above Horse Camp, but it's very tracked out and rocky. Use caution and take it slow.

Over the past 24 hours, temperatures near treeline have averaged 36.5 °F, with a 29.5 °F low and a 44 °F high. Winds on Gray Butte averaged 5 mi/hr, peaked at 13, and gusted up to 25. Seventy inches of snow remain at Old Ski Bowl, sixty in the Eddies.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

It's going to be a warm, calm, sunny day. Enjoy the spring weather. It seems to be here to stay for awhile.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 30 30 62 47 4 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 27 27 45 36 0 0 Snow sensor down
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 30.5 30 44 36.5 69.9 0 0 1.6
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 31.5 30 42.5 36 6 25 WNW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 35 30.5 51 40.5 59 0 1.5
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 29 29 44 35.5 2 5 WSW 58.4 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) 33 14 33 23.5 69.4 0 0.5
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) 31 22.5 41 32 8 24 W

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny. Partly cloudy. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 49 35 47
Wind (mi/hr) Southeast 0-5 Southwest 0-5 South 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Sunny. Partly cloudy. Sunny. Breezy.
Temperature (°F) 31 28 29
Wind (mi/hr) West 5-10 Southwest 10-15 Southwest 20-25
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2020 (the wet season) 17.15 36.04 48
Month to Date (since May 1, 2021) 0.00 0.58 0
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2021) 13.57 20.83 65

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.