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Forecast Addendum 4/4/2023 - 07:00am
Forecast Addendum 4/3/2023 - 07:00am
Location Map
Snowpack Observations
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Weather Observations
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Forecast Addendum 4/2/2023 - 07:00am
Location Map
Snowpack Observations
Details
Today I went to the Eddy mountains to assess snowpack stability, look for recent avalanche activity, and determine the overall distribution of the recently active graupel weak layer.
Snow was encountered about 1.75 miles up the 17 Road. The snow continued to be patchy, with large stretches of pavement for at least a couple miles until about 5,000 feet. Snow was falling as low as 4,800 feet, but didn't start accumulating till 6,000 feet. The sky remained fully obscured, with moderate snowfall continuing throughout the outing. A surface crust was present on all terrain except for the most shaded, northerly aspects. At 7,300 feet, winds remained light out of the west. No wind transport was observed, however, north facing cornices had grown slightly in the last couple of days.
A pit was dug at 7,200 feet on a northwest aspect in search of the recently active weak layer. Around 72 cm of new snow sat on top of a very thin graupel layer. Below the graupel layer was very dense old snow, on top of less dense melt form. Knowing that this graupel layer had resulted in multiple large naturals across the forecast area, I wanted to know its current stability at this location. Tests resulted in no propagation (ECTX) and no failure (CTN). On a shovel shear test, the weak layer did fail with moderate pressure (Q2/Q3). In addition to test results, no new signs of recent avalanche activity were found. Overall, this weak layer seems less reactive today in this area, compared to observations earlier this week.
- Observation Location: Parks Creek summit area, Eddy Mountains
- Elevation: 7,300 feet
- Date: 20230401
- Time: 1200
- Observer: S. Clairmont
- Sky Conditions: Obscured (X)
- Current Precipitation: Type - SN, Rate - S-1
- Air Temperature: 25 °F
- Surface Penetration: Ski penetration (PS) = 6 in (15 cm)
- 24-hour New Snow Depth (HN24): 2 in (5 cm)
- Wind Direction: W
- Wind Speed: Light (L), 1-16 mi/hr, twigs in motion
- Column & Block Tests:
- Slope Angle & Aspect (30º, NW)
- ECTX
- Shovel shear failure, down 71 cm
Weather Observations
Statistics
Forecast Addendum 4/1/2023 - 07:00am
Location Map
Avalanche Observations
Details
Nick and I found ourselves up in the Mumbo Basin area today to conduct another round of snow surveys at the Whalan and Mumbo sites. Snow depths averaged 145 inches at Whalan Summit and 129 inches in Mumbo Basin. While on our return, we spotted the crown of an avalanche on a northerly aspect just above Upper Mumbo Lake in near treeline terrain. The starting zone was on a mid-slope convexity feature, with little trees and a small rocky knoll. This avalanche likely occurred on Wednesday, when several similar natural avalanches happened across the forecast area. Similarly, the most impressive features from this avalanche is how well it propagated. Maintaining one to three foot depth, this avalanche broke 800 feet wide, wrapping around multiple terrain features, and including almost all avalanche terrain on the slope.
A pit was dug next to the slide path, in representative terrain. Upon deep tap tests, propagation occurred on tap 23 (Q1 -resistant planar) down 75 cm (29 inches). The weak layer appeared as an old graupel layer that is insulated by a melt freeze crust. We tested this weak layer with a propagation saw test, which resulted in a 25/100. To sum it up, this layer is currently stubborn to trigger, however shows excellent propagation under failure. Under magnified inspection, this layer appears to be showing signs of healing. This weak layer is the same layer deemed the culprit for the multiple avalanche in the Eddy Mountains earlier this week, including this one.
Observations from the day:
Observers remained below treeline throughout the day, with a max elevation of 6,500 feet. Precipitation fell in the form of rain down low, transitioning to snow around 4,000 feet. Winds remained calm to light out of the southwest. The sky was fully obscured through the outing. Snow surface conditions varied based on elevation. At low elevations, we found heavy, saturated snow with abundant rain runnels. Above the snow line, we found widespread surface crust with deep, soft snow underneath. Except for the Mumbo Basin avalanche, no other signs of snowpack instability were observed today.
DATA CODE: SS-N-D2-R3
- 1. Date: 20230331
- 2. Time: 1500
- 3. Observer: S. Clairmont and N. Meyers
- 4. Path Characteristics:
- a. Observation Location: Upper Mumbo Lake
- b. Aspect: NW
- c. Slope Angle in Starting Zone: 38
- d. Elevation: 6,300 feet
- 5. Event Characteristics
- a. Type: Soft slab
- b. Trigger: Natural
- c. Size: R3 - D2
- d. Snow Properties
- i. Bed Surface: Melt-freeze crust
- ii. Weak Layer: Old graupel layer
- iii. Slab: New snow, 75 cm
- e. Dimensions
- i. Slab Thickness: 1–3 feet
- ii. Width: 800 feet
- iii. Vertical Fall: 500 feet
- f. Location of Start Zone: Convexity feature mid-slope
- g. Terminus: Forest/trees
Characteristics
Weather Observations
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Forecast Addendum 3/31/2023 - 07:00am
Forecast Addendum 3/30/2023 - 07:00am
Forecast Addendum 3/29/2023 - 07:00am
Forecast Addendum 3/29/2023 - 07:00am
Forecast Addendum 3/27/2023 - 07:00am
Location Map
Snowpack Observations
Details
Eric and I made our way to the Gray Rocks area to conduct the monthly snow survey. The road to Castle Lake still only contains one very narrow lane to the Methodist camp. The gate is still closed.
Weather trends:
- Sky cover was mostly clear with some passing clouds. Temperatures remained quite cold through the morning, rising above freezing in the afternoon. Winds were surprisingly light out of the north.
- Around one to two inches of new snow blanketed all aspects. The new snow is relatively low-density.
Snowpack observations:
- Southerly aspects contained a series of crusts, the most prominent being at the surface. All southerly terrain had about one inch of new snow on top of a very firm crust, making travel and skiing slightly unpleasant.
- Northerly aspects were significantly softer. Though still containing a slight surface crust, soft snow can still be found in the most shaded of areas.
- The new low-density snow remained mostly cold and dry, and beside the most sunny of aspects beginning to warm.
- East facing terrain features still held some variable surfaces due to wind effect.
- Slight cracking was observed between ski tracks. Some old avalanche debris was still visible on north and east facing aspects. Beside the cracking, no significant signs of instability or recent avalanche activity was observed.
On the way out, the one lane road had melted into large stretches of pavement between snow patches.
- Observation Location: Gray Rocks
- Elevation: 6,200 feet
- Date: 20230326
- Time: 1200
- Observer: S. Clairmont, E. Falconer
- Sky Conditions: Few (FEW)
- Current Precipitation: Type - NO
- Air Temperature: 25 °F
- Total Snow Depth (HS): 160 in (406 cm)
- 24-hour New Snow Depth (HN24): 2 in (5 cm)
- Wind Direction: NW
- Wind Speed: Light (L), 1-16 mi/hr, twigs in motion
Weather Observations
Statistics
Forecast Addendum 3/26/2023 - 07:00am
Location Map
Snowpack Observations
Details
Three of us set out to observe snowpack conditions in the Cliff Lake area. A cold morning quickly warmed with elevation gain due to a noticeable valley temperature inversion. Sky coverage remained broken throughout the day. Weather was inconsistent, with periods of moderate snowfall, followed by warm and sunny skies, then switching back. Winds remained light out of the northwest, increasing to a steady moderate at ridgelines and exposed slopes. Temperatures were unseasonably cold, staying below freezing all day.
The most obvious observation was the large variability in snow surface conditions throughout the entirety of the Cliff Lake area. The wind has really done some work here. All slopes have some form of wind skin, crust, sastrugi type, or snow drift across it. Some more exposed areas held shallow, hollow, wind slabs that were reactive to ski cuts on steep slopes. These wind slabs remained isolated to terrain feature, and slope angle. Large cornices have grown on all ridgelines. Particularly, south facing cornices have become as large as small cars. Wind transport was observed depositing onto all southerly aspects.
Compared to other recently observed areas across Mount Shasta, this zone saw very little new snow. There was some variability due to wind, but generally there was about two inches of new snow on top of firm old snow.
Surface hoar was noted low down near Cliff Lake, and near surface facets were found in isolated north facing terrain.
There was an impressive amount of avalanche debris on north, east, and west facing aspects. Most steep slopes have shed recently, in the form of wet loose or some type of slab.
- Observation Location: Cliff Lake
- Elevation: 7,200 feet
- Date: 20230325
- Time: 1400
- Observer: S. Clairmont, N. Meyers
- Sky Conditions: Broken (BKN)
- Current Precipitation: Type - SN, Rate - S-1
- Air Temperature: 20 °F
- Total Snow Depth (HS): 147 in (373 cm)
- 24-hour New Snow Depth (HN24): 1 in (2.5 cm)
- Wind Direction: NW
- Wind Speed: Light [(L), 1-16 mi/hr] to moderate [(M), 17-25 mi/hr]
Weather Observations
Statistics
Forecast Addendum 3/25/2023 - 07:00am
Forecast Addendum 3/24/2023 - 07:00am
Location Map
Snowpack Observations
Details
Observations from the northwest face of Gray Butte from 2pm to 4pm
Weather trends:
- Cloud level was around 6,500 feet.
- In the parking lot of the ski park, sky cover was around 75%, temperatures were above freezing, and surface snow was dense and saturated.
- At the top of Gray Butte, the sky was 100% obscured, temperatures remained cold, with light winds out of the northwest, and the snow remained cold and dry.
- Light snowfall continued throughout the outing, which turned to graupel near the end of the day.
Snowpack observations:
- Near the summit of Gray Butte, there was around five to six inches of new snow. Above 7,000 feet, the new snow appeared cold and dry, and relatively low density. Below 7,000 feet, a surface crust formed from saturation of the upper couple inches of snow.
- Near treeline, there was some minor surface wind texture across exposed slopes and ridges, however, wind transport was not observed.
- Upon shovel shear tests, weak layers were identified at the new snow old snow interface (5-6 inches down) and at a slightly deeper saturated snow layer (10 inches down).
- No avalanches or slab characteristics were observed today, however, ski cuts did cause some dry loose sloughing.
- Observation Location: Northwest face of Gray Butte
- Elevation: 7,700 feet
- Date: 20230323
- Time: 1500
- Observer: S. Clairmont
- Sky Conditions: Obscured (X)
- Current Precipitation: Type - SN, Rate - S-1
- Air Temperature: 24 °F
- Surface Penetration: Ski penetration (PS) = 5 in (12 cm)
- Total Snow Depth (HS): 6 in (15 cm)
- 24-hour New Snow Depth (HN24): [?] in ([?] cm)
- 24-hour New Snow Water Equivalent (HN24W): [?] in ([?] cm)
- Wind Direction: NW
- Wind Speed: Light (L), 1-16 mi/hr, twigs in motion
Observations from the Ash Creek Butte area
Weather trends:
Surface conditions:
Snowpack observations: